Week of August 31, 1998

Boeing's investigation into the disaster is focusing on the vehicleís control system with first reports suggesting the system lost hydraulic fluid due to an unexpected oscillating roll of the launch vehicle. "Based on the data we reviewed over the past couple of days, it is pretty clear the failure is related to our control system," said Clarence Quan, Boeing investigation leader.

The launch, subject to weather delays due to the arrival of Hurricane Bonnie along the US East Coast, is the second US space launch to end in disaster in two weeks. Earlier this month a Lockheed Martin-built Air Force Titan rocket carrying a spy satellite exploded 40 seconds after liftoff. Boeing has not had a rocket launch failure since the January 1997 liftoff of a Delta II, which exploded after 13 seconds in flight.

The payload capabilities of Boeing's newest rocket is double that of Delta II, but more important, the Delta III is Boeingís first launch rocket large enough to jettison major communications satellites high into the Earthís orbit, a capability that allows Boeing to become more competitive in the commercial launch arena. The capabilities of the Delta III rocket, or rather the ability it provides Boeing to establish itself in the commercial launch arena, figured heavily into Boeing's decision to acquire the defense capabilities of McDonnell Douglas Corp last year.

The Delta III crash puts on hold Boeing's effort to penetrate the heavier lift sector and to compete with the European Ariane-4 and the Lockheed Martin-built Atlas IIA, two heavy-lift rockets with several years of successful launches ahead of Boeing.

The 8,500-pound Galaxy 10 satellite owned by PanAmSat Corp was to provide telecommunications services to the US. The lost satellite was insured, and PanAmSat says it plans to have a replacement Galaxy 10 ready to launch in 18 months.

Analysts for the most part downplayed the incident as non-catastrophic to either Boeing or to space launch in general.

"We all need to be cautious in not reading too much into the incident," said Elliot G Pulham, senior vice president of the US Space Foundation. "Space is so much a daily part of our lives, that a launch takes place somewhere in the world on an almost weekly basis."

Other analysts agree. "We'll begin to see more of these incidents simply because there will be more launches," says Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Washington DC-based Teal Group who specializes in space launch vehicles.

The Delta II and the Atlas rockets have had decades to perfect their systems, he says. Both have had several launch failures over the years, but these were much less publicized because they were government-related launches. Now that weíre seeing rockets carrying satellites for major commercial customers, who have heavily promoted their product and their satellite capabilities, the public has been kept much more informed about launch successes and failures.

More space launches are also expected out of Europe, Japan and from third-world countries like Brazil, China and India. As developing nations perfect their new technologies, weíre sure to see more launch failures making headlines, analysts say.

For Boeing the impact is believed to be more psychological than material. The aerospace giant has suffered considerable hardships recently, largely stemming from the commercial aircraft division, but the high demand for space launch is expected to offset any temporary loss of confidence in the Boeing space division, analysts say.

"Boeing is not investing its entire future in the Delta III," says Caceres. The Delta III is a transition to the Delta IV, and was only expected to be around for 4-5 years, he says. "Boeing wanted to have a vehicle to launch the larger payloads until the Delta IV is ready," Caceres says.

The long-term impact for Boeing is likely to be minimal, he says. The short-term impact will depend on how quickly Boeing is able to resume the program. Because the Delta III was not an entirely new rocket, Boeing could have the program running again in as soon as four months. If the Delta III were an entirely new product, the investigation could take up to a year to complete.

The true injured party in this situation appears not to be Boeing but the United States. The two back-to-back explosions this month of US-manufactured rockets looks bad, given the 37th successful launch of French rival Arianespaceís Ariane-4 rocket that took place on Tuesday (see related story).

The A-4 is a direct competitor with Boeingís Delta III, but like the Delta III the French-built A-4 is Arianespace's transitional vehicle. The French companyís next generation rocket, the Ariane-5, is still undergoing testing and has taken its lumps over the last few years. Arianespace had hoped to phase out the A-4 by now, but the manufacturer had to go back to using the A-4 for its heavy commercial launches because of the delays.

Boeing likewise will continue with Delta II launches, but said Friday it has postponed a planned launch of five Iridium system satellites for Motorola that was scheduled for September 1, pending the investigation of the Delta III rocket failure.

PanAmSat and Hughes Electronics, which owns about 80 percent of PanAmSat, will similarly suffer negative consequences from the incident. Both have predicted earnings shortfalls for fiscal 1998 as a result of the destroyed satellite.

Select Interior Links AeroWorldNet Front Cover | Contact AeroWorldNet